Bangladesh is currently at the third stage of her demographic transition. Bangladesh has been experiencing a rapid change in her population structure due to successes of social policy interventions which have driven down child mortality and high fertility rates and extended life expectancy. Changing population structures likely to have implications on the economy and society mainly via three channels – (i) labour supply and labour market; (ii) internal migration and urbanization; and (iii) demand for goods and services – especially for public services including social protection system. The demographic dynamic suggests that the older population (those aged 60 and over) outnumber children (0-5) in less than a decade. The above circumstances indicate the need for social protection systems that adapt to demographic changes. In this context this study attempts to explore the implications of changing demographic dynamics and effects on social protection in Bangladesh. Following five age-specific groups – children (age 0-4); school age (age 5-14); youth (age 15-29); working age (age 30-59); and old age (age 60 and above) have been considered in this study.
The study has used various methods and diverse data sets. Frist, a through desk review of the changing population structure and their socio-economic implications has been conducted using demographic dynamic and other relevant social and economic data sets. Second, an analytical framework invoking the demand side and supply side of the age-based social protection system has been used to assess adequacy and gap. Demand side assessment is based on the demographic dynamics and HIES 2010 and 2016 data sets. Social protection budget data produced by Ministry of Finance have been employed to derive the supply side. Third, a costing module based on the demographic dynamic (i.e. between 2020 and 2050) and key macro-economic indicators is employed to project costs of the age-based social protection schemes.